Skee Nerd’s Mid-Skeeson Analysis
[Editor’s Note: There is nothing I love more than to get one of these little write-ups in my inbox. The Skee Nerd is back…]
Skee Nerd’s Mid-Skeeson Analysis – Skeeson 8:
Is Thursday still the most competitive night of skeeball?
There has been a lot of discussion this skeeson surrounding whether Thursday remains the most competitive night of skeeball. Recall the ghost writers’ pre-skeeson write-up claiming“ Wednesday night might have more depth at the top of the standings than Thursday night,” or the guest writer’s recap of weeks 1 & 2 spouting that Wednesday has put “the first stake in the ground as the stronger of the two nights.” Given these grand assertions, it seems appropriate at this skeeson mid-point to statistically evaluate the teams and individuals from these two nights of skeeball.
Although Thursday teams are overall better, based on a comparison of the averages of all Wednesday and Thursday teams (861.92 vs. 810.42), an unpaired, one-tailed Student’s t-Test suggests this difference is not significant (p=0.06). [Editor’s Note: Here we go again with the p’s and q’s] This pattern also holds when comparing the averages of the top 16 teams (rank based on total number of points, not averages) of the two nights (p=0.12) and the top 8 teams (p=0.44); however when comparing just the top 4 teams of the two nights, Wednesday night is actually statistically better than Thursday night (p<0.05, Figure 1A).
Figure 1.Comparison of the top 4 teams of Wednesday and Thursday night. Team averages with standard deviations graphed based on current rankings by total points (A) and based on adjusted rankings based on average team score (B).
The rankings however as they stand, due to DNRs, are noticeably missing defending champions Smells Like Skee Spirit from Wednesdays and Skeevenge of the Nerds (2 of 3 former Chotchskees), Skeematics Got Roofskeed (Polischoke plus 2 former chalice winners), and 3 Yellow Men Trillionaire Club (2 of 3 former Mustard Tigers) from Thursdays. The difference between the two nights disappears (p=0.42) when adjusting the ranking based on average score per night rather than by total overall score (Figure 1B).
Based on these reorganized rankings, if the teams from Wednesday night had to go head-to-head against the same ranking team from Thursday night, scores of the top teams are not significantly different between the two nights, meaning either night could come away with the win. As you go deeper in the rankings however statistics favor Thursday night with Thursday’s #10 NSA stronger than Wednesday’s #10 Ready, Set, Roll (p<0.05), #11 Rollin’ on Henneskee (T) stronger than #11 There is no crying in skeeball (W; p<0.05), #12 Los Pollos Skeemanos (T) stronger than #12 What Cheer Skeetop? (W; p<0.05), and #14 Skee’d Marks (T) stronger than #14 Team Soco (W; p<0.05, Figure 2).
Figure 2. Head-to-head match-ups. Team averages with standard deviations graphed based on adjusted rankings according to average team score rather than total points.
When it comes to individual rankings, despite the top two players hailing from Wednesday, and Pinball Steve’s (currently in 5th) defection from Thursday night to form #Lane2SuperTeam (thanks guest writer) on Wednesday, the split is relatively even with 14 of the top 32 individuals rolling on Wednesdays and 18 rolling on Thursdays. Further, a non-parametric (ordinal), one-tailed Mann-Whitney [Editor’s Note: Say what? Now I think the Skee Nerd is just making these terms up!] test suggests that Wednesday’s rollers are not stronger than Thursday’s (p=0.35), and in fact when ranked from 1 to 32 with 32 being the best, the average rank of Thursday rollers is 1.3 greater than Wednesday rollers (17.1 and 15.8, respectively). Aparametric, one-tailed, two-sample T-test (p=0.41) supports these results (Figure 3).
Figure 3.Top 32 individuals.Each dot represents an individual’s score from weeks rolled, and the line represents the individual’s average after 4 weeks.On a side note, who btw is Lefty?!! We sure this roller is a rookskee?And wtf Sam Reidy, you screwed up my y-axis having to include that 228 of yours.
Although in week 1 the top four teams from Wednesday outscored #1 Skeepleus from Thursday (failing to break 1000) and #Lane2SuperTeam scored a record-breaking 1215 is week 4, Thursday has held their own with top teams performing at levels on par with Wednesday night. Assuming Thursday has been the stronger of the two nights in skeesons past (which hasn’t in fact been tested), this data does not provide support for Wednesday taking over the title of most competitive night of skeeball. In fact, if you are a team holding a rank ≥10, then Thursday is your stronger night.
With half the skeeson left to play out, anything can and will happen and I look forward to reevaluating the stats come Super Saturday, or whatever Duke decides to call it next. Skee you on the lanes…
Skee Nerd Out.