Skeeson 8 playoff analysis Part II:
Who on Thursday makes it to Super Saturday?
With Skeeson 8 Wednesday night playoffs in the books, clearly anything can happen. Statistically #superteam was nearly unbeatable, but former chalice winners Smells Like Skee Spirit pulled off the upset (on Lane 3 as I predicted if an upset were to happen!) and move on to Super Saturday along with Skee Ballin’!! I’m 0 for 2, but clearly there are confounding variables that have not been taken into account in my analysis that make accurate predictions difficult (thank you Will McLean). True that blood alcohol content (BAC), sample sizes, a bad day at work, relationship issues… can all play a role in performance, but unfortunately these data are not available and thus the Student’s T-test is still appropriate when analyzing these match-ups. Perhaps in the future a metric for BAC (or a Breathalyzer test itself prior to each match), etc can be devised to incorporate these data into next skeeson’s analysis, but in the meantime I must make do with what I have. So, moving on…
The Thursday night matches may be a bit more difficult to predict. Comparing the team averages (with standard error) of each match again using unpaired, two-tailed Student’s T-tests (Figure 1), Skeevenge of the Nerds (p<0.0001), Skeepleus (p<0.0001), Skeematics Got Roofskeed (p<0.0001), 3 Yellow Men Trillionaire Club (p<0.001), and Skeein’ is Believing (p<0.05) all move on without question.
Figure 1. Thursday night playoff (A) top and (B) bottom bracket and my predictions based on statistical analysis (*=p<0.05, **=p<0.01, ***=p<0.001, ****=p<0.0001). Hopefully a more readable resolution this time…
Therefore the Round I match-ups to watch, all at 6:30, are #7 Why So Skeerious? vs. #10 Bad News Bearskees; #6 It ain’t easy bein’ Skeezy vs. #11 Los Pollos Skeemanos; and, #8 Little Lebowskee’s Urban Achievers (LLUA) vs. #9 Rollin’ on Henneskee. Unfortunately, comparison of average score per lane and roll time among the match-ups does not reveal any significant findings to aid in my predictions (Figure 2). Henneskee had their best night on Lane 2 with a 1057, whereas LLUA may be better on Lane 1 (even though it may be their worst lane). But the game time is at 6:30 and Henneskee may peak late…LLUA moves on to Round 2. Skeezy looks better on Lanes 1 & 3, but Los Pollos rolled a 1035 on Lane 2 in week 8 and therefore could pull off an upset on this lane. Roll time between these two teams would likely only make a difference at a 9:30 or later game time, and would favor Skeezy. The 1035 may have been lucky given the team’s average of a 896.5…Skeezy, with a 949.75 average, moves on to Round 2. Lastly, Skeerious? will likely dominate on Lanes 1 & 2 and appears to roll consistently regardless of game time. Although Bearskees have a chance on Lane 3, Skeerious? moves on to Round 2.
Figure 2. Higher seed (Blue) vs. Lower seed (Green) taking into account lane number and roll time. No significant findings revealed, although low sample sizes likely a factor.
In Round 2, Nerds (p<0.001), Roofskeed (p<0.05), and Skeepleus (p<0.01) move on. The Yellow Men vs. Believing however will be a close match. Yellow Men maintain a 1000+ average of 1012.13, however, Believing rolled a 1043 and 1060 in the last two weeks of play and therefore may be finding their stride. Although, again, no significant findings were revealed when taking into account lane number or roll time, Lane 1 and possibly Lane 3 may prove to be problem for Believing (Figure 3). But, I’ve heard through the grapevine that Yellow Men may be down a player this evening, and so as long as #supersub aka #chrismartin doesn’t show up to roll in this match, I’m calling upset with Believing moving on to Round 3.
Figure 3. 3 Yellow Men Trillionaire Club (Blue) vs. Skeein’ is Believing (Green) taking into account roll time and lane number. No significant findings.
Finally, which two teams on Thursday night make it to Super Saturday?
Nerds win over Believing to go to Super Saturday (p<0.05); however, if Yellow Men happen to make it over Believing, this match will be close with only 40 points separating the two team averages (Figure 4). Nerds however did beat Yellow Men by 90 points in their week 8 head-to-head match-up, so either way I’m sticking with my selection and Nerds move on.
Figure 4. Nerds (Blue) vs. Yellow Men (Green) and Believing (Purple). Nerds beat Believing (p<0.05); but match-up against Yellow Men could go either way.
Skeepleus vs. Roofskeed will therefore be the 10:30 match to watch. Although when comparing roll time and lane number there are no significant differences between the two teams, there are some interesting trends (Figure 5). On Lanes 1 & 3, Skeepleus will likely dominate, while on Lane 2 Roofskeed may have the advantage. Regarding roll time, Skeepleus may just dominate regardless of what time they roll; however lane/time data on Roofskeed’s 1091 are missing, and the absence of 10:30 performances for either team makes it impossible to say with certainty who will come out on top in this match. Even if Polischoke is in top form with his heckling, the data trends are too tantalizing and I predict Skeepleus will move on.
Figure 5. Skeepleus (Blue) vs. Roofskeed (Green) taking into account roll time and lane number. No significant findings.
It’s boring I know, but the top two seeds Nerds and Skeepleus move on to face Skee Spirit and Skee Ballin’!! on Super Saturday. Skee you on the lanes.
Skee Nerd out.