Skeeson 8 playoff analysis Part I:
Who on Wednesday makes it to Super Saturday?
Skeeson 8 playoffs are here and I’m just going to get right to it. On Wednesday night there are only a few questionable matches when comparing the team averages (with standard error) of each match using unpaired, two-tailed Student’s T-tests (Figure 1). [Editor’s Note: I’m beginning to think you put in these randomly named figures in here just to screw with me.] 
Figure 1. Wednesday night playoff (A) top and (B) bottom bracket and my predictions based on statistical analysis (*=p<0.05, **=p<0.01, ***=p<0.001, ****=p<0.0001)
Arbitrarily dividing the bracket into a top and bottom bracket, from the top bracket 2 Balls & A Doll (p<0.0001), Red Balls (p<0.001), Skee Ballin’!! (p<0.0001) and Rec-skee-ational Drinkers (p<0.01) move on to Round 2. From the bottom bracket, Skee Wee Hermans (#superteam, p<0.0001), Smells Like Skee Spirit (p<0.0001), and Trickskee Little Hobbits (p<0.0001) move on without question. The Round I game to watch is therefore at 6:30 with #8 I’m Ron JaworSKEE…ESPN vs. #9 Bocskee. With nearly even team averages over the 8 weeks of play (852.88 and 844.75, respectively) this game could go either way. However, although these data are not significant, I’m Ron JaworSKEE…ESPN maintains a higher average and are more consistent at the 6:30 roll time than Bocskee and therefore may be my favorite in this match; but, if these two teams match up on Lane 1, then Bocskee has a chance at pulling off an upset (Figure 2). Given the 2 out of 3 odds however that the match will occur on either Lane 2 or 3, my prediction for this match is that ESPN moves on to Round 2.
Figure 2. I’m Ron JaworSKEE…ESPN (Red) vs. Bocskee (Orange) taking into account roll time and lane number.
In Round 2, from the top bracket 2 Balls & A Doll (p<0.001) and Skee Ballin’!! (p<0.0001) move on to Round 3. From the bottom bracket, #superteam (p<0.001), regardless of whether they match up against ESPN or Bocskee, move on. The game to watch in this round is the match-up between #4 Smells Like Skee Spirit and #5 Trickskee Little Hobbits. Much like ESPN and Bocskee, Skee Spirit and Trickskee have nearly equal averages over 8 weeks of play (1000 and 980.13, respectively) and therefore it may come down to roll time and/or lane. Skee Spirit trends higher on any given lane compared to Trickskee, although these results are not significant (Figure 3). With respect to roll time, there is little overlap between the two teams, but at 7:30 and 8:30 these data suggest nearly equal performance between the teams. Given that this match goes down at 9:30 and Skee Spirit has rolled most of their matches prior to 8:30, and given that Trickskee’s lead roller Patrick Bassett is rolling out of his mind this skeeson with a 480 in week 8 (compared to Shed’s 421), I’m going to call an upset here and say Trickskee Little Hobbits move on to Round 3.
Figure 3. Smells Like Skee Spirit (Red) vs. Trickskee Little Hobbits (Orange) taking into account roll time and lane number.
Finally, what two teams make it to Super Saturday?
Both final matches of the evening will be worth watching. In the top bracket, Skee Ballin’!! will face 2 Balls & A Doll. With team averages of 1056.75 and 1015.63, respectively, both teams clearly know how to roll. With this match taking place at 10:30, 2 Balls & A Doll have much more practice at this late roll time compared to Skee Ballin’!! (Figure 4); however, with Skee Ballin’!!s’ one match at 10:30 yielding them their highest team score, I don’t think game time will be a set-back for the three boys. Lane choice on the other hand may be a more significant factor in who moves on to Super Saturday; average scores on Lane 1 and Lane 2 are indistinguishable between the two teams. On Lane 3 however, Skee Ballin’!! rolls better than 2 Balls & A Doll (p<0.05). With both teams carrying rosters of top 32 rollers, and Ian from Skee Ballin’!! and Stephanie from 2 Balls & A Doll both breaking 400 in week 8, this match will be close. Hedging my bet on the odds that this match will go down on either Lane 1 or Lane 2 (2 out of 3 odds), I’m going to go with the “underdog” 2 Balls & A Doll moving on to Super Saturday.
Figure 4. Skee Ballin’!! (Red) vs. 2 Balls & A Doll (Orange) taking into account roll time and lane number. Skee Ballin’!! rolls better on Lane 3 than 2 Balls & A Doll (p<0.05).
In the bottom bracket, #superteam will face either Smells Like Skee Spirit or Trickskee Little Hobbits. Again, Skee Spirit has little experience playing past 8:30 and Trickskee’s 980.13 team average pales in comparison to #superteam’s 1071.38. With an average nearly 100 points greater than Trickskee’s (and about 70 points greater than Skee Spirit’s) it’s hard to bet against #superteam in this match, especially given that statistically neither Skee Spirit (p<0.001) nor Trickskee (p<0.001) stand a chance (Figure 1B). Furthermore, with #superteam’s experience playing in the later matches, and scoring 1100+ is weeks 7 and 8, I don’t see an upset; and perhaps the only time either Skee Spirit or Trickskee has the slightest chance at pulling off an upset is if they get to match-up on Lane 3 or maybe Lane 1, given that statistical analysis does not suggest that #superteam is better on either of these two lanes (Figure 5). However, if the match ends up on Lane 2, then the win will surely go to #superteam as they are significantly better than both Skee Spirit (p<0.01) and Trickskee (p<0.001) on this lane. Assuming that the super trio doesn’t choke (which may or may not be a good assumption), Skee Wee Hermans move on to play for the chalice on Super Saturday.
Figure 5. Skee Wee Hermans (#superteam, Red) vs. Smells Like Skee Spirit (Orange) and Trickskee Little Hobbits (Yellow). #superteam is rolls significantly better on Lane 2 compared to Skee Spirit (p<0.01) and Trickskee (p<0.001).
So there it is, I predict 2 Balls & A Doll and #superteam make it to Super Saturday. Stay tuned for my Thursday night analysis.
Skee Nerd out.