The Skee Nerd’s Thursday Night Breakdown
(Editor’s Note: The Skee Nerd came out of no where and wowed skeeBOSTON with his/her picks yesterday. Rumors were swirling all night about who it could possibly be. I wish I knew! Well, when I woke up this morning I had another email in my inbox. Another great breakdown, enjoy!)
Thursday Night Playoff-Qualifying Teams. Black dots represent the 8 scores from each of the 8 weeks of play for each team, and the red lines represent each team’s average. The blue dotted line has been arbitrarily placed at 1000, for purpose of this Skeeson 7 playoff break-down.
Breaking down Thursday night’s brackets, statistically (tested using a parametric one-way ANOVA with Bonferroni correction) (Editor’s Note: Again with this Nova stuff? Didn’t we go over this yesterday? I’m willing to bet no one understands what this means. Aside from being some mathematical formula, I don’t have a clue either. Nerd Alert!) I Got Roofskeed (p<0.0001), Snakes on a Lane (p<0.0001), Skeepleus (p<0.0001), Balls to the Wall (p<0.05), Chotchskees (p<0.0001), and Mustard Tigers (p<0.0001) should move on to Round II.
Round I match-ups to watch:
#8 Skeeing is Believing vs. #9 It Ain’t Easy Bein’ Skeezy
These two teams have a nearly identical average. It Ain’t Easy Bein’ Skeezy has rolled at or above their average in 5 out of 8 weeks, and carries a winning record of 4-2. Skeeing is Believing on the other hand has rolled above average 4 out of 8 weeks, but in weeks 3 & 4 rolled in the 700s, something Bein’ Skeezy has never done. Although Bein’ Skeezy has yet to roll over 950, which Skeeing is Believing has done twice (weeks 1 & 2), my pick is for It Ain’t Easy Bein’ Skeezy to move on to round II.
#7 Skee Willy vs. #10 Bad News Bearskees
Skee Willy’s average is more than 70 points greater than the Bad News Bearskees’, breaking 1000 once in week 2, but with skeeson lows of 830 and 842 in weeks’ 1 & 5, respectively. The Bad News Bearskees have an undefeated record of 7-0 and roll pretty consistently in the mid-800s. Although Bad News Bearskees rolled a skeeson high of 921 in week 7, my pick is for Skee Willy to win this one and move on to Round II. (Editor’s Note: I’m going with the upset. Write it down. Bad News Bearskees move on… with a BYE! Skee Willy’s playoff run has been put on hold.)
In Round II, once again statistically, I Got Roofskeed (p<0.0001) and Mustard Tigers (p<0.05) move on to the final round of the night.
Round II match-ups to watch:
#4 Snakes on a Lane vs. #5 Skeepleus
Now this match will be fun. With nearly identical averages, Snakes on a Lane will take on the skeeson 6 champions, Skeepleus. Snakes on a Lane is the only team on Thursday night to go 8-0 in head-to-head matchups (and 1 of 3 to go undefeated). Despite the impressive record however, this team in unpredictable, achieving scores from 894 (week 4) to an impressive 1083 (week 1) and everything in between. Skeepleus also capable of rolling impressive 1000+ games (weeks 3, 4, & 5), finished the skeeson with a skeeson low of 935. Although Skeepleus lost Chuck (371.71, HRT rank 5) this skeeson to Balls to the Wall and added Chelsey (312, HRT rank 35), Snakes on a Lane had two weeks rolling lower than Skeepleus’ lowest. It will likely come down to the last frame, but my pick for this match is Skeepleus. (Editor’s Note: The Lane selection will have a lot to do with the outcome of this bank fest.)
#3 Chotchskees vs. #6 Balls to the Wall
Although this is a 3 versus a 6 seed with the Chotchskees average nearly 50 points higher than Balls to the Wall, this will be a close match. Balls to the Wall fairly consistently, in 6 out of 8 matches, rolled in the mid-to-high 900s. The Chotchskees on the other hand in 4 out of 8 matches rolled right around 1000, with a fifth week rolling a skeeson high of 1131 (week 5). Despite these scores, in 3 out of the 8 weeks the Chotchskees are right at Balls to the Wall’s average, and like Balls to the Wall, rolled one of their lowest scores of the skeeson in week 8. With Balls to the Wall however rolling less than 900 twice (weeks 1 & 8), and with the Chotchskees’ ability to roll 1000+, my pick for this match-up is Chotchskees. (Editor’s Note: If Chuck catches fire and Ted hasn’t blacked out, this match is going to be closer than people think. Then again, we all know Chuck can’t win the big game!)
The final match-ups of the night, like Wednesday night, will be exciting, because again statistically it’s anyone’s game.
Predicted Final Four Teams for Thursday Night. Colored dots represent the 8 scores from each of the 8 weeks of play for each individual (grouped by team) and Brian Aldridge (Wednesday night) (Editor’s Note: Wait. Why is Brian on this graph? You accurately called for his team to lose and now you are sucking up? WEAK SAUCE!) because he whined, and the black horizontal lines represent each individual’s average. The square with vertical lines is the team average with standard deviation.
#1 I Got Roofskeed vs. #5 Skeepleus
I Got Roofskeed will be a hard team to beat. As only 1 of 2 teams on Thursday night to average more than 1000 over 8 weeks, and more impressive, the only team to never score less than 1000 in any given match, Skeepleus will have to bring-it in order to pull off the upset on this one. Roofskeed’s top roller Chris (403.00, HRT rank 3) maintains an average of nearly 35 points higher than Skeepleus’ Scott (367.57, HRT rank 7). With Polischuk (334.57, HRT rank 19) and Courtney (321.71, HRT rank 28) fairly evenly matched with Thomas (324.57, HRT rank 26) and Chelsey (312.71, HRT rank 35), each roller on Skeepleus will have to step it up to beat Roofskeed. Despite Skeepleus’ average at less than 1000, 3 out of 8 weeks they have rolled 1000+, and have skeeson 6’s win fresh in their memories. This match will likely come down to the last frame…
#2 Mustard Tigers vs. #3 Chotchskees
Mustard Tigers too will be a hard team to beat. With an average of greater than 1000, and 5 out of 8 weeks rolling more than 1000, the Mustard Tigers should have Chotchskees beat. However, Chotchskees can roll big, really big – try 1131 (week 5) – only 1 other team on Thursdays has accomplished the 1100+ week (I Got Roofskeed, week 5). As for individual averages, Derek for the Mustard Tigers at 425.71 (HRT rank 2) is clearly the best player in the match-up, second however is Chotchskees’ Lisa with a 367.71 (HRT rank 6). (Editor’s Note: That’s gotta sting Everett!) With Chotchskees Everett (339.00, HRT rank 14) and Chris (308.00, HRT 39) maintaining slightly higher averages than the Tigers’ Mike (331.71, HRT rank 21) and Ayla (279.29, WC rank 10), respectively, if Lisa can roll another 400+ night (accomplished only once in week 5), then the Chotchskees have a chance to upset the Tigers. I may just pick the upset here to see a new team on top, it’s going to be close…
I’m going to say that I Got Roofskeed and Chotchskees make it to Super Saturday. But again, anything can happen in the playoffs.
(Editor’s Note: There is so much going on in these final matches I don’t even know where to begin. Polischuk might have a mental break down trying to determine who to talk shit to. Derek and Trott are on another lane and we all know he will be yelling at them all night. Or will he focus on his own match?Over/under he loses his voice before the final four matches? Then there is the Everett vs Derek battle, or should I say Derek vs Lisa? Ouch. Once again I love an upset, but if the hundos are falling expect Derek to have a huge night. One thing is for sure, there is going to be some drama!)