The Skee Nerd’s Wednesday Night Breakdown
(Editor’s Note: First off I would like to introduce the Skee Nerd. The name is so fitting you have no idea what you are about to get yourself into. I received the below anonymous email earlier this morning and was blown away. I LOVE stats, but this takes it to a new level. Enjoy!)
Wednesday Night Playoff-Qualifying Teams. Black dots represent the 8 scores from each of the 8 weeks of play for each team, and the red lines represent each team’s average. The blue dotted line has been arbitrarily placed at 1000, for purpose of this Skeeson 7 playoff break-down.
Looking at a breakdown of the Wednesday night brackets, statistically (tested using a parametric one-way ANOVA with Bonferroni correction) Smells Like Skee Spirit (p<0.0001), Murder Skee Wrote (p<0.0001), Little Lebowskee Urban Achievers (p<0.0001), Trickskee Little Hobbits (p<0.05), OMG Kowalskees (p<0.0001), and Skee Ballin’! (p<0.0001) should move on to Round II. (Editor’s Note: You lost me at ANOVA. Is like a relative of Super-Nova? NERD ALERT and I love it!)
Round I match-ups to watch:
#8 Quarter Pounder with Skees (Editors Notes: It’s actually skeeze. Good at math, bad at spelling.) vs. #9 Balls Deep
Quarter Pounder with Skees (Editors Notes: Skeeze. Like cheese. Get it? (Great team name btw and yes I put brackets inside of brackets.)) has a few nights hovering around their 8-week average, while the rest of their nights range from 704 (rolled in week 2) to 984 (rolled in week 8). Balls Deep on the other hand either rolls above or below their average with their 3 800-plus nights rolled in week 1, 7 & 8. My pick is for Quarter Pounder with Skees (skeeze) to move on given their proven ability to roll in the 900s (week 5 and 8) that Balls Deep has yet to do.
#7 Skeeball is better than Bocce vs. #10 Skee No Evil
Skeeball is better than Bocce maintains a relatively high average compared to Skee No Evil, however, can have a bad night (weeks 4 & 8). Skee No Evil on the other hand is fairly consistent with no week total too high or too low. Skeeball is better than Bocce has quite the impressive record, being the only Wednesday night team to go undefeated, and therefore my pick is for Skeeball is better than Bocce to move on to Round II.
In Round II, once again statistically, Smells Like Skee Spirit (p<0.0001) and Skee Ballin’! (p<0.05) move on to the final round of the night.
Round II match-ups to watch:
#4 Murder Skee Wrote vs. #5 Little Lebowskee Urban Achievers
Murder Skee Wrote is pretty consistent hovering just below 1000 in 5 out of 8 weeks, and finishing the skeeson with an impressive 7-1 record. Little Lebowskee Urban Achievers on the other hand are all over the place with their lowest roll in the high 800s (week 3), but rolling 1000+ in 2 out of the last 3 weeks of the skeeson. Although Murder Skee Wrote has the potential to roll big (1067 in week 8!), who rolls a 150 and 180 in the same night they roll a perfect 900 (Brian Aldridge…)? I’m calling an upset here and picking Little Lebowskee Urban Achievers to move on to Round III.
#3 OMG! Kowalskees vs. #6 Trickskee Little Hobbits
Trickskee Little Hobbits roll mostly at or above their average in the high 800s-low 900s, with their highest score of 938 rolled in week 8, but their lowest of 770 rolled only two weeks prior in week 6. OMG! Kowalskees on the other hand have had 3 1000+ nights (weeks 1, 4, & 5) with a 998 in week 8, but low 900 rolls in weeks 6 & 7. If this match was earlier in the night, Trickskee Little Hobbits could pull off the upset here. They will be well past the legal limit and OMG! Kowalskees’ near 1000 average will allow them to easily move on to Round III. (Editors Notes: Good call. The real question here is whether or not Dionne has already spilled a drink on the machines!?)
The final match-ups of the night will be exciting, because statistically it’s anyone’s game.
Predicted Final Four Teams for Wednesday Night. Colored dots represent the 8 scores from each of the 8 weeks of play for each individual (grouped by team), and the black horizontal lines represent each individual’s average. The square with vertical lines is the team average with standard deviation. (Editor’s Note: Two graphs. This Skee Nerd is legit. WOW!)
#1 Smells Like Skee Spirit vs. #5 Little Lebowskee Urban Achievers
Foxon. What more can be said about Smells Like Skee Spirit. (Editors Notes: I would have gone with Shed, but well played.) She maintains the highest individual average EVER with a 440.43, beating Derek Morgan’s Skeeson 5 average by more than 15 points. Her average is also nearly 90 points more than Little Lebowskee Urban Acheivers’ highest roller, Andrew Newton (352.86, HRT rank 9). With Lebowskee’s Bobby (321.71, HRT rank 29) and Greg (289.43, HRT rank 59) and Skee Spirit’s Paul (303.29, HRT rank 45) and Shannon (285.86, WC rank 4) pretty evenly matched, if Foxon shows up to play (and even if she doesn’t – lowest roll was only a 343 in week 1), Smells Like Skee Spirit will be a hard team to beat.
#2 Skee Ballin’ vs. #3 OMG! Kowalskees
From team averages to individual averages, these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Jerry (338.71, HRT rank 15), top roller from OMG! Kowalskee’s, finished the skeeson with a whopping 373 in week 8, but in weeks 2 & 6 couldn’t break 300. Pat (349.43, HRT rank 10), top roller from Skee Ballin’!, rolled a 400+ game twice in the second half of the skeeson, but finished last week with a 308. OMG Kowalskee’s Stephanie (329.29, HRT rank 22) and Greek (322.14, HRT rank 27) are pretty damn consistent with scores from each of the 8 weeks hovering right around their averages. Chuck (329.29, HRT rank 23) from Skee Ballin’! is also pretty consistent, but Ian (338.71, HRT rank 16) has the potential to have a good week or a bad week with scores in the 350s, but also in the 200s. Given that these teams are pretty equal, Skee Ballin’!’s team scores each week are a little more variable with a week 4 low of 839. Although Skee Ballin’! has the potential to roll 1100+, I like OMG! Kowalskee’s consistency.
My bet is that Smells Like Skee Spirit and the OMG! Kowalskees make it to Super Saturday. But, with that being said, anything can happen in the playoffs.
(Editors Notes: I love when someone anonymously makes picks, but what I love more is when they aren’t afraid to pick an upset! The Skee Nerd crushed it.)